New York Yankees Top Players And Fans Who Are Hardly Working For Developing The Team…

Last week, we started a four-part series attempting to answer the question of whether the Yankees are good at player development. Specifically, we looked at the correlation between exit velocity and the frequency at which one makes contact. As I highlighted, studies have shown that the harder you hit the ball, the more likely things will go your way. The Yankees have consistently developed players who hit the ball hard with contact being a secondary objective. Given that it’s extremely rare for players to have a surplus of both, you ultimately have to set priorities. It’s obvious from my observations that the Yankees target and develop exit velocity darlings at a very high clip. Contact hitters aren’t as plentiful for the Yanks, but they have helped some hitting prospects evolve from non-starter contact rates to sufficient ones that would allow them to contribute in the bigs.

Today, our focus shifts from damage on contact and contact rates to launch angle and plate discipline. Though I’m writing about launch angle and plate discipline after exit velocity and contact rates, I don’t want you to think they’re not important skills. In reality, there’s a correlation between all these elements. The correlation between plate discipline and exit velocity, for instance, is as clear as day, and such correlations should be factored into whether a player is a serious candidate to improve in one regard or the other. So let’s dig in and see where the Yankees land in these other two facets of hitting development.

Launch angle, also known as vertical spray, is pretty straightforward. It measures the vertical angle at which a batted ball is hit along. There is such a thing as hitting the ball at too shallow or steep an angle, just like there’s an area of vertical spray that’s called the sweet spot, or the range in which extra base hits most often occur. This graphic from MLB.com does a solid job of illustrating the sweet spot:

Generally speaking, the sweet spot is between 8-32 degrees, though thinner ranges are preferable depending on what outcome you’re seeking. Most doubles and triples are on the lower end of that range since the more air time a ball has, the more likely an outfielder is to run it down. For home runs, you typically want to be on the higher end of that range. As I pointed out in last week’s article, different kinds of hitters should be seeking different outcomes depending on their strengths. Relating it to last week’s examples, Caleb Durbin should look to finish near the lower end of the sweet spot range since he doesn’t do much damage on contact. If he’s able to lift the ball at optimal launch angles and pull the ball, he could steal some home runs akin to how Isaac Paredes and Cody Bellinger did last season, but his skills dictate that a lower launch angle might allow him to be a gaps king if it clicks.

Relating this to the Yankees, they’ve never been afraid to draft or sign players with huge exit velocities but an inability to lift the ball. Their two top prospects from my offseason ranking of the system, Spencer Jones and Jasson Domínguez, summarize this dichotomy to a tee. Each hit the ball exceptionally hard, but both have had issues making enough contact and lifting the ball. If you look at Yankees prospects who’ve graduated to the majors over the years, however, you’ll notice that many of them have lifted the ball with aplomb.

I’d argue that some of the launch angles you see aren’t optimized given each player’s tools, but in large strokes, the Yankees have gotten their prospects to start lifting the ball. I should note that many of the former prospects in the table from the link above had concerns regarding their inability to lift the ball at one point or another, only to have those issues resolved by the time they reached the bigs. Having said that, they currently have quite a few prospects who aren’t lifting the ball as much as they should. This year will be telling to see if they’ve still got it, for a lack of better words.

Shameless plug, but the way I think about plate discipline can be summarized by a piece written by my colleague at Baseball Prospectus, Robert Orr. I’ll recap his article with three points he made toward his conclusion:

Robert’s award-winning article introduced the world to the SEAGER score, which is a statistic he used to capture the points above. The stat was named after its 2023 darling, Corey Seager.

This is an area the Yankees, I believe, haven’t had nearly as much success. Specifically, they’ve produced hitters who tend to be incredibly aggressive outside the zone, and that continued last season with the promotions of Everson Pereira and Austin Wells. Wells is an oddball because he was so selective in the low minors to the point where he was borderline passive, which is the opposite of aggressiveness out of the zone but just as problematic. Pereira’s always chased out of the zone, but people have always given him the benefit of the doubt since he’s always been hurt. My point is that they’re just two of a plethora of prospects the Yankees have called upon who’ve tended to chase way too much out of the zone.

The caveat here is that plate discipline, though not a physical tool, is arguably the most difficult tool to develop. Teams are now using virtual reality in an attempt to help hitters train their eyes, but results have been mixed. It’s still incredibly early in the VR cycle, but I imagine that alongside AI integration, it will be the next arms race in player development. I am wholly confident in the Yankees’ ability to be cutting-edge in these facets because of their willingness to adapt as new information becomes available.

Recapping the hitting portion of player development, the Yankees have prioritized players that hit the ball hard, with contact being a secondary objective. They’re typically able to help those hitters lift the ball as they climb the minor league ladder, but they tend to chase out of the zone and thus, limit their upside by making poor contact out of the zone. Overall, I’d argue the Yankees are a top-10 development group on the hitting side. Of course, there have been minor quibbles about the Yankees’ ability to develop the finer details, but those are issues that can be easily remedied and aren’t long-term concerns.

I’ll leave you with a point I made in last week’s article: it’s neither right nor fair to criticize the player development group for the front office’s ability or lack thereof to incorporate more young players into the major league core. Brian Cashman’s job might depend on his ability to do that moving forward, but you can’t deny the solid job the Yankees have done at developing major league-quality hitters. Next week, we’ll start covering their pitching development. Hint hint: They’re pretty good at it.